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Lithium-ion Rocks!™ is a vibrant and engaging look at the mining and chemical industry supplying the lithium-ion battery-fuelled disruption of the Transportation and Utility industries.
Episodes
Sunday Dec 20, 2020
Monday Nov 02, 2020
Monday Nov 02, 2020
In part two of our interview with lithium expert Gerrit Fuelling, Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein dig deeper into which project types (rock, salar brine, clay, unconventional brine) and which specific projects in Europe and the USA are most likely to be first into production to meet what looks to be a major potential #lithium shortage and bottleneck by 2023/24.
Gerrit also offers advice for his former employer Albemarle as they enter year-end price mating season with #Tesla and other #EV customers.
Tune in for extensive commentary on developing players in Europe -- European Metals Holdings, SavannahResources, and VulcanEnergyResources; USA/North America - Piedmont Lithium, LithiumAmericas, CriticalElements, Bacanora and many more (Albemarle, Livent, Ganfeng, Orocobre, Galaxy, Infinity, Keliber, E3Metals, CornishLithium, Neometals)
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Not investment research. DYOR. Read disclaimer at www.rkequity.com
Monday Nov 02, 2020
Monday Nov 02, 2020
The Lithium-ion Rocks podcast is back - and better than ever in video format now also on YouTube at Rock Stock Channel!
Also back is one of our most popular guests, lithium expert Gerrit Fuelling, who spent nearly 3 decades at the world's #1 lithium producer Albemarle.
Rodney and Howard agree with other leading industry voices suggesting to "Listen to everything Gerrit says". Gerrit is the only lithium expert commenting publicly with long experience not just with world class brines, but with what has become the more dominant and relevant hard rock technology for the nickel-rich, hydroxide-hungry cathodes Tesla and other western OEMs require.
As a follow up to Rock Stock Channel's 12 minute "Albemarle Throws Lithium Mud at Elon", the first of our two-part, long-form interviews dives deeper into Albemarle's messaging from their October 8th "Teach-in" with investment bank Jefferies.
In the age of battery Terafactories and ludicrous EV growth mode, will the world be able to produce enough lithium in time to meet Tesla and the rest of the world's ambitious goals?
Gerrit argues that, while lithium is fundamentally abundant, there's a real risk that lithium production will significantly lag as EV penetration grows rapidly. Fundamentally a complicated, inorganic specialty chemistry business - scaling lithium production takes time; investments in lithium project development is substantially lagging EV, Battery and cathode plant development.
Credible lithium projects of all types - hard rock, traditional brine, clay and unconventional brine projects will be needed. But, as Albemarle argues, over the next 5 years, hard rock projects will be the quickest and most reliable to market. New projects and new technologies are more likely late this decade and the cost curve will have to rise - potentially significantly - to accommodate what are likely to be higher cost projects. In an industry littered with failed projects - even among conventional projects run by the most experienced producers - investors should be mindful that there are unlikely any new "silver bullets."
How in the world will the lithium industry develop 50 new 20,000 ton capacity hydroxide plants by 2030?
$30-40B + investment is needed in green and brown field development. During the 2016-17 lithium mini-boom many developers advanced projects and are worthy of further investment.
Gerrit hints at a few he rates as relevant, which Howard and Rodney dig deeper into in our next video E31 - What's Fuelling Gerrit (GF2). Stay tuned.
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And consider joining us on Patreon at patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Not investment research. DYOR. Read video disclaimer.
Tuesday Jul 21, 2020
Tuesday Jul 21, 2020
Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein are back after a 3-month hiatus taking stock of the information contained in the Mr. Lithium Market Scoreboard as the tumultuous 1H 2020 punctuated by Covid Q2 disruption is in the books.
Tried and true "Don't Fight the Fed" combined with a new pandemic maxim "Buy in May, Stay At Home," combined with Tesla $69.42 S3XY short shorts is leading to cautious optimism/better bid behavior across a number of lithium stocks.
While a battle for lithium mindshare has emerged from an upgrading Ganfeng China analyst from underweight to overweight vs. her SQM & ALB love/hating colleagues - recognizing the highly relevant dichotomy between speciality hydroxide for Tier One customers in Japan and Korea trading at 80% premium to China "spot" carbonate.
Tune in for detailed commentary on Ganfeng, Mineral Resource, Lithium Americas, Sigma Lithium, Altura and many new and old names in USA, Europe, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Canada.
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Tuesday Mar 10, 2020
Tuesday Mar 10, 2020
Lithium-ion Rocks is back after a 6-week hiatus with interviews and commentary from Canada's premier metals and mining event #PDAC2020. The key Battery Materials highlight was an event sponsored by law firm Miller Thomson keynoted by 2019's Nobel Prize winner for Chemistry Stanley Whittingham - who flags future dominance of nickel-rich NMCA chemistries - and reminders from Benchmark Minerals Andy Miller about western OEM's over-reliance on China's supply chain & the likelihood for upside lithium price volatility in the face of decreased greenfield investment and brownfield expansions.
Benchmark's groundbreaking work with the USA government powers-that-be returns May 21/22 to Washington DC and will be followed thereafter by what is sure to be another annual must-attend event: Battery Megafactories Europe in Berlin June 17/18 at which Rodney Hooper will be Chairing the sessions and corporate presentations for "Trans-continental Opportunities for Europe’s Supply Chain"
E28 Podcast index below, which includes comments on quarterly and year-end results from Dividend Aristocrat $ALB, Air Supply $SQM, Tianqi's Kwinanamaska woes, $1772's parabolic rise despite #Ganfeng's paltry 9% margins. We also discuss a key area of focus - Lithium 3.0 with 2030 Vision - our preference for advanced junior developers, and the wide valuation disparity among them which offers potential for asymmetric risk/reward for astute Jane and George Battery Pack investors.
0.00: Introduction
0:40: Spodumene and chemical pricing forecast (Andy Millar)
1:48: Howard introductory commentary
3:06: Stanley Whittingham Q&A PDAC
8:50: Howard commentary, focus on Ganfeng and Altura
18:20: Q&A with Andy Millar, focus on the impact of coronavirus, battery plant growth and the future
37:10: Rodney commentary, focus on Europe and EV sales, supply/demand for 2020
45:30: Howard closing commentary, including risk/rewards of lithium investing
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Not Investment Advice. Do your own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Sunday Jan 19, 2020
Sunday Jan 19, 2020
Is 2020 Finally Going to Be the Year for Lithium?
As the Roaring 20’s Lithium 3.0 begins, so too the need for 2030 Vision:
* ~2Mt LCE, 1.7m new tons
* 6X 2019 production
* 17 new Wodginas
* 68 25kta new processing plants!
It takes 4-5 years and USD500M-1B+ to build, or buy & build, 50% of Kidman's Mt Holland or 100% of Piedmont Lithium - 20+ year mine life, 20-25kta sustainable, world class qualified integrated project to supply ~500,000 EVs from one new and expanded USA battery plants at LG Chem, SK Innovation, Tesla and Volvo.
With 2030 Vision, USA can lead North America to 400,000 tons annual production, or 20% of 2M global LCE, or 33%+ of the EV OEM-qualified market. Where from those 400,000 tons?
As China refrains from further withdrawing subsidies prematurely, Tesla is once again THE story, and Europe is the New China with talk about a possible Carbon Border Tax, Sustainability is the buzzword on everyone's lips globally.
It may take 60 years to reach the first million tons of demand (~2025), but we expect the next million to take around six years (~2031). New assets will be needed and an "all of the above" lithium investment strategy required - conventional rock, brine, direct lithium extraction and clay/softrock.
Tune in to hear special guest Gerrit Fuelling join LithiumIonRocks co-hosts Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein recap Lithium 2.0 with 2020 Hindsight & look forward with 2030 Vision. And discuss which companies we see the most Blue Sky in Green Fields.
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libull.com
Not Advice. DYOR
Tuesday Dec 31, 2019
Tuesday Dec 31, 2019
Chris Reed and Neometals monetized a $3M investment in Mt Marion into $200M cash over a 10-year period since bringing Mineral Resources in as Build Own Operater with 30% project interest in 2010. No Stranger, Chris Reed, descendant of mining royalty & man of deep global lithium expertise at the epicenter of the last decades boom busts, shares the great history in partnering to create the worlds second most important hard rock lithium resource - a secure, sustainable supplier to green European sensitivities at VW & BMW, for example, via China Girl Ganfeng - while maintaining strong economics for both miner and processor of this pioneering 50:50 JV.
Mineral Resources now has strong JVs in Western Australia with the two most important lithium producers globally - Albemarle and Ganfeng. How might this dynamic evolve over time?
Neometals has done well by its shareholders - returning cash via dividends and buybacks, as it has monetized Mt. Marion, while at the same time, maintaining a 20-person staff "project generating" new ventures. With NMT trading at about its cash balance of AUD 108M, Mr. Market seems to assign no value to this team of proven value creators.
That could change in 2020/21 as Neometals advances its exceptionally high IRR - 72% - low Capex - USD 66M - recycling project in partnership with Germany industrial giant SMS. With Auto OEMs in particular government mandated to re-cycle their exponentially growing universe of EV batteries, this emerging industry is destined to be a hot development area over the next decade. Neometals is one of the few public plays in the re-cycling space.
Chris discusses Neometals revenue potential from recycling services, licensing and sale of recovered cobalt, nickel, lithium, copper, iron, aluminium, manganese into saleable products using its proprietary, sustainable process recovering materials from consumer electronic batteries (lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) cathodes), and nickel‐rich electric vehicle and stationary storage battery chemistries (lithium‐nickel-manganese‐cobalt (NMC) cathodes).
Chris also shares some thoughts on the new Lithium Paradigm with volume purchaser Auto OEMs treating lithium as they do all their other "suppliers".
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libull.com
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Gerrit Fuelling, an ex Rockwood/Albemarle chemical engineer who held senior executive roles in sales and operations, joins Lithium-ion Rocks co-hosts Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein for a second time this year for a candid discussion and highly differentiated perspective, in particular re: brine producers and developers in Chile and Argentina.
Also included are key highlights and voices from existing ALB management from their December 12 Investor Day in New York.
Questions
- hydroxide and carbonate spec sheets are tightening from end users, in particular Auto OEMs - will old producers/old plants (eg. SQM) meet the new standards? Or are new producers/plants better placed?
- Orocobre and Galaxy have decided to produce a lower quality/intermediate product in Argentina to be processed in lower altitude locations closer to cathode production -- is there an issue with these particular brines/projects (Hombre Meurto/Olaroz) to produce battery quality in Argentina? In general, can "conventional" evaporation (ie, the "Atacama process") work in Argentina or do you need different technology (eg. ion-exchange) that Livent uses to successfully produce battery quality?
- Do you believe Greenfield development projects in Argentina can achieve SQM/ALB-like operating costs (ie, below $3,500/t)? How applicable is Ganfeng's prior experience processing purified SQM brine to the development of Cauchari with Lithium Americas?
- Rodney wrote recently that breakeven pricing for Chinese non integrated converters using conservative numbers at about $8,400, so at $7K China carbonate spot, these marginal cost producers are well underwater, how much longer can they last? How are Chinese converters surviving?
- Can a chemical conversion plant be built in Europe? Is the EU serious enough about battery supply to support mining?
Listen carefully to Gerrit's detailed answers to all of the above PLUS Peter Parker Eric Norris's input on the brine vs. Hard Rock debate for an increasingly hydroxide future, ALB's path from 2020 trough to a $800-1B free cash flow machine and a bonus "bad answer" from Luke Kissam in response to Howard's question re: Mineral Resources JV
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer: libull.com
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Monday Dec 23, 2019
Lithium-ion Rocks co-host Howard Klein and Keith Phillips, CEO of North Carolina, USA-based, Piedmont Lithium reflect on Keith's 30 months since becoming The BOSS - after a storied 30-year career in global resource investment banking.
Growin' Up:
From 500 acres and 19 exploration drill holes to a major milestone 404 permit for its mine and concentrator last month. Keith maps out the path over the next 12 months to definitive feasibility study and full funding/final investment decision Q42020 with first hydroxide production by 2023.
She's the One:
Keith also discusses the unique attributes and strategic nature of America's only spodumene lithium development project in "Hydroxide Hub" North Carolina in Albemarle and Livent's backyard. Piedmont's integrated scoping study suggests it could be the world's lowest cost producer of the highest valued battery quality lithium hydroxide ($3,100 cash costs projected).
Piedmont is listed on #ASX and #Nasdaq, ticker #PLL
The company has no debt and a market cap of USD 60M. 100% of its production is available as off-take to prospective customers/partners/investors.
PLL in July raised AUD21 M at 14.5 cents with large institutions adding a new 9% blue--chip investor, Fidelity International alongside Australia's largest institutional investor AusSuper Annuation, following their rights to maintain a 13% stake. PLL trades today at 11 cents, despite its lightning speed project advancement/permitting.
Piedmont Lithium. Rhymes with Kidman.
Growing Up. She's the One
Santa Claus is Coming to Town
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer
libull.com
Monday Dec 09, 2019
Monday Dec 09, 2019
One of LinkedIns most influential voices about Electric Vehicles, Roger Atkins has amassed nearly 300,000 followers over 15 years immersed in the accelerating disruption of the passenger vehicle market and all other forms of e-mobility. "From Electric Guitars to Electric Cars," this accomplished solo musician shares a lot in common with one Lithium-ion Rocks co-host including Southern American blues influences to Robert Plant and Mick Jagger.
A chance breakfast encounter at Hotel California with Simon Moores at the Benchmark Minerals Cathodes conference planted the seed for this episode. Roger shares his astonishment that the automobile companies he watches pour billions into unproven autonomous technology ventures for the distant future,, but leave themselves “hostile to fortune” in a few years because they have not secured adequate critical mineral lithium supply.
Lithium-ion Rocks also previews E24 with The BOSS #KeithPhillips of Nasdaq and ASX-listed #PiedmontLithium following their major milestone federal 404 permit for mine and concentrator.
Podcast Index
0-3:15 Introduction of Roger Atkins & His Background
3:15-25 - Q&A with "Great Question" Rodney Hooper & Howard Klein
PHEV vs. BEV debate? Will PHEVs be the dominant EV or will BEVs like Tesla be more popular? Sustainability? Climate Consciousness? How important is the battery supply chain carbon footprint to EV buyers in Europe? What is his sense about Europeans willingness to buy an EV if it costs more than ICE? Will they pay a premium to "do the right thing?" How important are EV buyer subsidies? Do OEMs recognize their "hostage to fortune" upstream lithium materials vulnerabilities? Will 2020 be the first year we see Tesla, Volkswagen or other auto OEMs allocate $1-2B checks not just to distant autonomous vehicle venture dreams, but to direct investments in mining and chemical production to address imminent hydroxide shortages? Which countries, projects are best placed to attract such investment/partnerships?
25-45 Interview with Keith Phillips of Piedmont Lithium
Keith reflects on his 30 months since becoming The BOSS when Piedmont had only 500 acres and 19 drill holes, and, following a major milestone 404 permit for its mine and concentrator, discuss the path over the next 12 months to definitive feasibility study and full funding/final investment decision toward first battery quality lithium hydroxide production by 2023.
Piedmont is listed on #ASX and #Nasdaq, ticker #PLL
The company has no debt and a market cap of USD 60M. 100% of its production is available as off-take to prospective customers/partners/investors.
PLL in July raised AUD21 M at 14.5 cents with large institutions adding a new 9% blue--chip investor, Fidelity International alongside Australia's largest institutional investor AusSuper Annuation, following their rights to maintain a 13% stake. PLL trades today at 11 cents, despite its lightning speed project advancement/permitting.
Growing Up. Pink Cadillac. She's the One
Santa Claus is Coming to Town
The BOSS
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Not investment advice. Do Your Own Research.