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Lithium-ion Rocks!™ is a vibrant and engaging look at the mining and chemical industry supplying the lithium-ion battery-fuelled disruption of the Transportation and Utility industries.
Episodes
Friday Nov 08, 2019
Friday Nov 08, 2019
The tenure of Lithium-ion Rocks' co-host Howard Klein’s four day London visit for LME Week remained relatively bearish lithium and broader resource market as tariffs inflicted on aluminum and steel have had a real impact and ongoing trade war, slowing China GDP, negative EU yields, Brexit and impeachment narrative overhangs are all weighing on sentiment.
And yet, kernels of optimism from cash flow machine Rio Tinto CEO J-S Jacques as 60%+ iron ore EBITDA margins and reduced gearing enables a vision built on decade of discipline and peering into a future challenged by complex geopolitics, disruptive technology and broader environment/societal considerations. SUSTAINABILITY.
The LME's announced advisory committee for lithium price - including Tesla, Jaguar, BASF, Tianqi and Albemarle - revived "The Clash" among price reporting agencies and other forecasters.
Bloomberg NEF's Sophie Lu and James Frith join Rodney and Howard with their bullish views on nickel-based cathode chemistries. "We see battery grade hydroxide that reach the specs needed to be very tight, even in the short term.... Around 40% of battery grade capacity are being developed not by Tier One producers...Any one project not fulfilling the time lines could result in short-term deficit..."
Podcast Index
0- 12 - Takeaways & Excerpts from LME Week Battery Materials Presenters
12-21 - Rio Tinto Key Note Speech Excerpts
21-47 - Interview with BNEF's Sophie Lu and James Frith
Tuesday Nov 05, 2019
Tuesday Nov 05, 2019
Tesla Profits & Lithium Prophets
As LME Week transitions toward Hotel California Benchmark Minerals Anodes/Cathodes and Deutsche Bank’s annual New York Lithium & Battery Supply Chain conference, Rodney Hooper shares thoughts on profitability - Tesla Q3 and Volkswagen’s long-term expectations - BMW direct battery materials sourcing, Tianqi’s overrun at Kwinana and the math behind $12K+ battery quality lithium pricing long-term. Howard comments on North American Rock - the evolving Carolina to Quebec Hydroxide Hub - and borate/lithium plays in Western USA.
And let's not forget Brien Lundin’s 45th Annual New Orleans Investment Conference Halloween Weekend at which Benchmark’s Simon Moores & The BOSS Keith Phillips @PiedmontLithium will be the principal EV-angelizers of the lithium investment thematic.
New Kid in Town: E3 Metals Corp (TSX-V: ETMC, CAD 10M market cap)
After The (white) Gold Rush of 2016/2017, and with substantial shortages of battery quality lithium chemicals forecast by as early as 2022/23 by virtually every analyst who has examined the lithium business the longest and in greatest detail, Livent, the world’s fifth biggest producer and acknowledged technology leader, has executed their first meaningful investment outside their core resource in Argentina and processing facilities in North Carolina, China, India and the UK.
Committing up to USD 5.5M with potential to convert to 19.9% ownership of E3 Metals, Livent looks to be making a low risk, potentially high reward foray to prove via a Joint Development Project that Direct Lithium Extraction/Ion-Exchange Process can commercially convert the lithium-rich Le Duc oilfield reservoir - 6.7M LCE inferred resource to date - to an initial 20,000 t battery quality lithium hydroxide production by 2023 and scale from there.
In E21, “Alive-nt in Alberta: E3 LiTHiuM," LithiumIonRocks discuss with Chris Doornbos, CEO of E3 Metals the back story to this under-the-radar lithium developer, and expected milestones over the next 12-18 months and beyond on the road to potentially becoming a new, secure & sustainable supplier of what Volkswagen calls the “Irreplaceable Element for the Electric Era".
Podcast Index:
0 - 2:37 - Introduction
2:38 - 12: 15 - Rodney on Tesla, EU, $12K+ long-term BQ lithium price
12:16 - 24:30 - Howard on Nemaska, Piedmont, Rio Tinto, ioneer, Senator Schumer’s EV plan
24 - 50 - Q&A with Chris Doornbos, CEO E3 Metals
@LithiumIonBull
@RodneyHooper13
libull.com
www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Not Investment Advice. Read Disclaimer. Do Your Own Research.
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
LEAVING ARGENTINA.
DECLINE OF LI PRICES IS JUST BEGINNING.
Deja Vu, Hey Joe?!
Lithium equities have fallen precipitously since late February 2018 as the above and similar headlines entered the public domain from a global team of research analysts at Morgan Stanley which has amongst the most extensive breadth of coverage across the EV supply chain - from mining/chemical to cathode to battery to Autos.
Is the bear lithium price thesis underpinning their call correct? Or have they been “right for the wrong reasons” so far?
Helplessly Hoping as back to school September begins Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein continue their Season 2, Episode 2 interview with Morgan Stanley’s Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan who covers (Somebody to Love) SQM, one of the largest, lowest cost lithium suppliers and has articulated aggressive supply expansion from their world class Salar da Atacama project.
Howard connected with Javier in March 2016 following SQM's 50% equity stake in Lithium America’s Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, an investment he looked at skeptically at the time as a ploy as SQM re-negotiated its Atacama concession with CORFO. Anyone invested in lithium shares interested in preserving their capital should have listened to Javier and the Morgan Stanley team, if not in February 2018 when they made their initial call, then perhaps in August that year, when their call on SQM exiting Argentina proved correct.
As VW & other German auto Lords continue to make Dieselgate amends at the Frankfurt Auto Show - less with Mercedes Benz & Hippie vans and more with Taycan Porsches and ID.3s, please enjoy Part Two of Lithium-ion Rocks! 20th episode, inspired by the 50th anniversary of the legendary Woodstock concert, With a Little Help From Janis, Joe Cocker.
And please also visit the Lithium-ion Rocks “tip jar”: www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Podcast Index:
0:00 - 1:18 - Introduction
1:19 - 8:00 - Q&A European OEM need for diversity of supply, Carbon footprint of the battery supply chain, Subsidies
8:01 - 14:00 - Q&A SQM supply ramp to 2025, SQM environmental
14:01 - 22:50 - Q&A SQM quality of product, market share. Lithium as a global product, technology and the future
22:51 - 42.44 - Q&A Price forecasts, what multiple should lithium companies trade at? Can incumbent producers meet future lithium demand? Chilean lithium market share, SQM sustainability
42:45 - end - Ending and disclaimer
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website atwww.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
Thursday Sep 12, 2019
SIGNIFICANT LITHIUM PRICE DOWNSIDE RISK.
THE LONG-TERM PAIN OF NEW SUPPLY.
SQM TO DEFINE GLOBAL LITHIUM PRICES. WHAT IS THE SWEET SPOT?
LEAVING ARGENTINA.
DECLINE OF LI PRICES IS JUST BEGINNING.
Lithium equities have fallen precipitously since late February 2018 as these and similar headlines entered the public domain from a global team of research analysts at Morgan Stanley which has amongst the most extensive breadth of coverage across the EV supply chain - from mining/chemical to cathode to battery to Autos.
Is the bear lithium price thesis underpinning their call correct? Or have they been “right for the wrong reasons” so far?
In Season 2 Episode 2, Rodney Hooper and Howard Klein interview Morgan Stanley’s Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan who covers SQM, one of the largest, lowest cost lithium suppliers and has articulated aggressive supply expansion from their world class Salar da Atacama project.
Howard connected with Javier in March 2016 following SQM's 50% equity stake in Lithium America’s Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, an investment he looked at skeptically at the time as a ploy as SQM re-negotiated its Atacama concession with CORFO. Anyone invested in lithium shares interested in preserving their capital should have listened to Javier and the Morgan Stanley team, if not in February 2018 when they made their initial call, then perhaps in August that year, when their call on SQM exiting Argentina proved correct.
As Summer Time Blues have come and gone, will the Blood, Sweat & Tears continue into year-end? Please enjoy Part One of Lithium-ion Rocks! 20th episode, inspired by the 50th anniversary of the legendary Woodstock concert, With a Little Help From our Friend of the Devil, Santana Martinez, who saw early and told the world about a lithium Bad Moon Rising,
And please also visit the Lithium-ion Rocks “tip jar”: www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Podcast Index:
0:00 - 4:20 - Introduction
4:21 - 10:40 - Javier background and the Morgan Stanley team
10:41-17:53 - Javier discusses lithium as a commodity and the importance of supply
17:54 - 30:30 - Discussion on SQM and technology
30:31-36:00 - Will new projects come into production with prices below $10k/t?
36:01 - 44:45 - SQM product mix Q2 and the future, gaining market share
44:46 - 51:20 - Global lithium markets, basis and arbitrage
51:21 – end Disclaimer
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research
For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures
Sunday Sep 08, 2019
Sunday Sep 08, 2019
As @RodneyHooper13 and @LithiumIonBull return after a five-week break to begin @LithiumIonRockssecond season, a redux of late 2018 Velocitility has again returned to global and global emerging markets.
Despite a strongly upbeat hydroxide demand outlook articulated in Livent’s Q2 conference call and supply restraint at Albemarle, lithium equities have staged only fleeting bear market short squeeze rallies. Political instability in usual (Argentina) and unusual (Hong Kong) places, negative bond yields, Brexit/EU stagnation and Trade War “chicken” with China continue to weigh on short-term sentiment. Gold is hot and goldbugs globally are giddy.
Canaccord Genuity’s Reg Spencer and Fastmarkets’ Will Adams discuss with Rodney and Howard their views of the current state of play with lithium supply/demand, prices, the outlook for ASX shares Alita ($A40), Altura ($AJM), Pilbara ($PLS) Orocobre ($ORE) and two of Canaccord’s top junior picks that continue to outperform, Piedmont Lithium ($PLL) and Lithium Power International ($LPI).
We also comment on Ganfeng's ($1772) surprise “No” vote from its Hong Kong shareholders and what this could mean to its $450M capital raising plans and its multiple junior miner partners.
PLUS! SOMETHING NEW!
LithiumIonRocks has joined Patreon to enable all our listeners the opportunity to contribute to our continued production of #LithiumEquityIntelligence
www.patreon.com/lithiumionrocks
Monthly Tiers:
$1 Tier - Brine
$10 Tier - Hard Rock
$20 Tier - Jane & George Battery Pack
$50 Tier - Unicorn in Green Fields
$100 Tier - LithiumIonBull
EXCLUSIVE SNEAK PREVIEW for all Patreon members that join the $10 Tier or above! Rodney and I recorded commentary on Livent and Albemarle conference calls which will be published as part of upcoming next episode following SQM’s Q2 conference all later this week.
Meantime, inspired by an epic stadium show by the Rolling Stones No Filter tour…
Enjoy E19: S2 Premiere! Emotional Rescue. Let it Bleed
Podcast Index
0:00-4:43: Introduction
4:44-15:30: Fastmarkets’ Will Adams price round up:
15:31-39:20: Sydney-based Canaccord Genuity analyst Reg Spencer discusses the current market conditions and his coverage of AJM, PLS, ORE, LPI & PLL
39:21-49:00: Howard & Rodney commentary on Alita and Ganfeng
49:01-end Disclaimer
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research.
Wednesday Jul 10, 2019
Wednesday Jul 10, 2019
1H Mr. Lithium Bull Market Scoreboard. Dead or a Livent?
E18 S1 Finale: #LiTHiuMadMen. #ChangetheConversation
0:00-5:04 Introduction
Howard discusses the change in conversation from price pressures to future chemical shortage. The battery arms race has begun and there’s a need to “overfund” to meet future demand. Geopolitics of Lithium. US Security of Supply. Mr Market scoreboard. Piedmont, Lithium Power International, Savannah, Infinity.
5:00-6:00. Tesla Lithium? Verbatim from Elon Musk at AGM & perspective on the potential for this vertical integration from recent podcast from Tesla gurus Galieo Russell (HyperChange) & Sam Korus (Ark Invest).
6-7 Chicago, Saturday in the Park. A man selling Ice Cream (Plain vaniLLa)
7 -9:30 Howard discusses Livent earnings, speciality chemicals multiples, and new discoveries/expansion - eg, Liontown, Piedmont, Carolina Tin Spodumene Belt.
9:30-13:15 Rodney discusses the 1st half and important trends to watch
13:15-15:30 Howard and Rodney discuss Europe as the new China and the OEM’s and the choices they’re making re EV’s
16:12-33 Tesla’s China factory and VW’s ability to make low prices cars. Eramet and the truth about how many projects are actually at an advanced stage. Project funding and who might get funded? Can new supply meet demand growth by the mid 2020’s? Chinese control of supply and Ganfeng’s growth strategy. What does Bacanora investment mean for Ganfeng - LAC/Thacker Pass? Will Ganfeng be welcomed to invest in #USA? Merge with LAC?
Dead or a Livent?
33-54 Chris Kapsch of Loop Capital discuss Livent in detail, including its place in the supply chain and whether like Albemarle it's a base load supplier? Price target and valuation time frame and which of LTHM and ALB he likes better.
Not Advice. Do your own research. Read Disclaimer.
Friday Jul 05, 2019
Friday Jul 05, 2019
KISSam Luke Parts 1, 2 & 3 PLUS Chile Manager Ellen Lenny-Pessagno
Index by Minute:
0-3 4 years since Rockwood acquisition, what has change in capital markets to so de-rate Albemarle’s multiple?
3-7 Momentum “block trade” increasing volatility & creating a “Freebird” Lithium valuation.
7-10:45 Albemarle overview of its mix of business and current key valuation metrics.
11 - 19 When hydroxide demand greater than carbonate? Hydroxide to maintain its price premium to carbonate? Sustainability in Atacama, other outstanding considerations with Chile regulators.
19 – 21 Antofalla, Argentina asset vs. possibly buy. LIvent, Orocobre. High quality brownfield Kings Mountain North Carolina
21-24 Clay or geotherma projects? Nemaska. Execution by juniors, by majors
24-26 Weather. Compare Western Australia (Wodgina) and Quebec
26-31 Tianqi SQM, possibility of takeover by Tianqi/China support?
31-34:30 ALB’s lithium assets trading at “replacement value”. Why?
34:30-37 ALB vulnerable for a takeover? Insider Buying?
37 What price expectation did ALB use to ensure IRR of two times their cost of capital for $2B Wodgina investment?
37-42 Spider Web – what two most important factors for M&A transaction?
Rockwood - Reflections four years on acquisition logic – World Class Greenbushes, Atacama. Pivot to hydroxide from Oz rock vs. Atacama carbonate. Perspectives on Ganfeng, partnering strategies with juniors or Chinese converters. Response to Ganfeng’s strategy to take over ALB as #1 producer. Big vs. profitability. Thoughts on Quebec, North Carolina, Europe as lithium geographies.
43:30-45 Kings Mountain – “No questionthat is a World Class, World Scale Asset” Can build “Hydroxide, Carbonate or another lithium derivative around it.” North Carolina, USA.
45:15-51 Timing of ALB bond? China approval for Wodgina?
Reliability of ALB’s long-term contracts and price floors
ALB’s customer mix
51 – 53:30 From 2021 will you seek to re-enter new carbonate contracts expire?
54-60:05 Strong potential of its past producing, plain vanilla hard rock lithium mine in King's Mountain North Carolina. Update on cost position and plans at Wodgina JV with Mineral Resources and potential to buy further China conversion assets. Luke also weighs into the increasingly topical discussion about USA Security of Supply - will US follow China and EU with some level local and federal support infrastructure, coordination and incentives support to bring entire supply chain? Can ALB be strategic American supplier to GM, Ford, VW USA?
60:05-89:30 Albemarle's Chile Country manager and ex-USA diplomat Ellen Lenny Pessagno also joins Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper in Santiago at the 11th annual FastMarkets Lithium Supply & Markets Conference with an update after her first nine months since joining ALB. Ellen outlines her and ALB's commitment to Sustainability while doubling the company's lithium production in Atacama and La Negra through the installation of new equipment to increase yield by 30%. And the company’s unique relationship and commitment to and employment of local indigenous populations as well as its strong relationship with CORFO and other government regulators. Ellen also shares her view on current political situation and risk/reward in Argentina.
89:30 Howard concluding comments including response to vocal ALB haters spewing “De-Worseification” and “Bad Company” epithets.
Not Investment Advice. Do Your Own Research. Read Disclaimer
Friday Jul 05, 2019
Friday Jul 05, 2019
Lithium Power International (ASX: LPI, OTC: LTHHF), has invested $50M advancing Maricunga, the most important Lithium Salar in Chile after Atacama, to Definitive Feasibility Study, positioning the company for potential full funding and Final Investment Decision upon final permitting expected later this year. Meantime, LPI will begin drilling highly prospective spodumene hard rock targets in elephant country Western Australia.
18 months into the Pinera Presidency, the LPI team reminds us of Chile's 30+ years of fast economic growth & political stability, its well established mining and environmental culture and the inherent competitive advantages of developing a high grade, low cost, conventional lithium project in one of the most skills- and infrastructure-rich locations in the world.
Ahead of FastMarkets 11th Annual Lithium Supply & Markets Conference in Santiago in early June, Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper had the opportunity to record four members of the LPI management and board, including CEO Cristobal Garcia Huidobro, Richard Crookes, David Hannon and Ricky Fertig.
Timeline Index
0:00-8:20: Introduction. "No dramas". Chile is "Open for Business"
8:20-10:15: Ricky Fertig discusses the history of the project and the importance of a strong local partner
10:15-11:15 David Hannon discusses the board composition and their backgrounds
11:15-15:15 Cristobal Garcia gives an overview of the project and outright ownership of land and the EIA process
15:15-17:30 Richard Crookes outlines the characteristics of the ideal strategic partner and a potential funding/capex strategy
17:30-20:30 Ricky & Cristobal discuss the benefits of the project's location and availability of key resources
20:30-25:15 Cristobal Garcia details how advanced the project is, the length access to fresh water and good relations with the local indigenous people
25:15:31:15 Richard Crookes discusses the hidden potential of the WA exploration assets and the proposed drilling program at Tabba Tabba. He provides further input on the Pilgangoora and Greenbushes assets. Richard and Howard discuss the Wesfarmers acquisition of Kidman and potential further lithium investment plans.
31:16: Wrap up
Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer
Monday Jun 24, 2019
Monday Jun 24, 2019
Will Adams & Jon Mulcahy @FastmarketsMB banter with @RodneyHooper13 & @LithiumIonBull about Takeaways and Giveaways as #Lithium19 Santiago #Chileconcluded last Wednesday.
Featuring: Sounds of Silence. Us & Them
Timeline
0:00 - 5:07: Introduction. VW ID Buzz. Sounds of Silence.
5:08 - 6:15: Fastmarkets introduction
6:16-10:35: Fastmarkets conference takeaways
10:36 - 12:10: Shouldn't OEMs lock in equity & off-take deals at current low prices?
12:11 - 14:00: Cathode chemistry trends
14:01 - 17:10: Hydroxide and carbonate pricing
17:11-22:58: Tianqi, Ganfeng, Livent, Albemarle banter. Sustainability. Transparency. Us & Them
22:59 - 27:35: Europe & battery supply chain. Infinity. Keliber. Savannah.
27:36 - 31:12: EV range, infrastructure, & carbon neutrality.
31:13 - 35:26: General commentary & Fastmarkets overview
35:27 - 41:30: LME contract & price forecasts
41:31 - 44:50: Project funding
44:51 - End: Trade war, EV sales & LME
Monday Jun 24, 2019
Monday Jun 24, 2019
Albemarle's CEO Luke Kissam talks about the strong potential of its past producing, plain vanilla hard rock lithium mine in King's Mountain North Carolina in the final segment of our interview from $ALB's world headquarters in Charlotte on May 30. And update on plans at Wodgina JV with Mineral Resources and potential for further China conversion assets. Luke also weighs into the increasingly topical discussion about USA Security of Supply.
Albemarle's Chile Country manager and ex-USA diplomat Ellen Lenny Pessagno also joins Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper in Santiago at the 11th annual FastMarkets Lithium Supply & Markets Conference with an update after her first nine months since joining ALB. Ellen outlines her and ALB's commitment to Sustainability while doubling the company's lithium production in Atacama and La Negra through the installation of new equipment to increase yield by 30%. And the company’s unique relationship and commitment to and employment of local indigenous populations as well as its strong relationship with CORFO and other government regulators.
King's Mountain in Charlotte, the Queen City of the South. Virginia USA-born Ellen Lenny Pessagno. American Girls.
Not investment advice. Do your own research.